Morning Commentary 8/18/21

Central US Weather Forecast Trends Drier/Warm for the Plains/C Midwest; Pro Farmer Soy Pod Counts Disappointing; July China Corn Imports

6:30 CT CBT Prices: Nov soybeans are down 8.50 cents at $13.53, Dec corn is up 1.50 cents at $5.65 with Sept Chi wheat up 3.00 cents at $7.375.

AgResource Morning Grain/Soy Comment & AnalysisGood Morning! Mixed CBT values are offered this morning with the grains pushing to the upside. Corn and wheat futures are higher after overnight selling based on drier than desired Central US weather forecast along with the increasing concern that the Russian Gov’t could move to be more restrictive on its grain export policy.

Soybean futures are sagging on the weakness in SE Asian palmoil futures and the residual selling of soyoil. ARC notes that it does not take much volume to move CBT values with additional purchases of US soybeans by China anticipated. China is back on a near daily program of purchasing US soybeans – especially when CBT values are weaker which adds to their local crush margins.

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour found record corn yield potential in Indiana while the Nebraska corn yield came in below the NASS forecast. The PF Tour estimated the Indiana corn yield at 193.5 BPA, up 13.5 BPA from last year and up 19 BPA from the 3-year average. The Nebraska corn yield was pegged at 182.3 BPA, which is up 7 BPA from last year and the 3-year average. Tour participants noted that Nebraska corn was going backwards due to recent hot/dry weather. They speculated that the same corn yield stress is being felt across Kansas.

The PF Tour estimated Indiana soybean pod counts in a 3 X 3’ square at 1,239 pods, below last year’s 1,281 pods, but above the 3-year average at 1,172 pods. Nebraska soybean pod counts were estimated at 1,226 pods, below last year’s 1,297 pods and the 3-year average of 1,269 pods. So far, the interesting fact of the tour is that E Midwest soybean pod counts are not living up to expectations.

The western leg of the PF Tour will estimate Iowa and the eastern leg Illinois today with the tour concluding in Minnesota on Thursday. ARC expects that the Tour will find variable Illinoi/Iowa corn and soybean yield prospects due to excessive June rainfall in Illinois and drought that prevails in Iowa.

China reported that it imported 2.86 MMTs of corn in July – a record. For the international corn crop year that ends on October 1st, its expected that China will import 28-29 MMTs of world corn, a record, and far above prior years. China also imported 880,000 MTs of world wheat and 1.11 MMTS of sorghum.

Malaysian September palmoil futures closed 99 ringgits lower at 4,418 RM/MT. Paris September wheat is up €2.00 at €244.75/MT. Dalian Sept corn lost $.01 to $10.225/Bu while September soymeal lost $3.85/MT to $561.40.

As Russian interior grain prices rise sharply due to a dire drought across W Russia, there are rumors that the Russian Gov’t could become more restrictive with their grain export policy. Russian sources have the 2021 corn crop under acute drought stress amid recent extreme heat. Some see the 2021 Russian corn crop as small as 11-12 MMTs due to weeks of acute dryness.

Acute Drought for Western Russia Knifes Sunseed/Corn Crops: Percent of Normal August Rainfall:

November soybeans are near support at $13.50 while corn/wheat try to bounce. Thursday’s US export sales should be supportive amid ongoing W Midwest dryness.

North American Weather Pattern Discussion: The GFS/EU weather models agree which raises our confidence in the 10-day forecast.  The EU/GFS models reduced rainfall totals for the Central Plans and the Central Midwest in the overnight run. Showers from across the N Plains and the N Minnesota late Thursday/Friday with a system pulling slowly north and east.

The best rain is forecast to drop across the Central Canadian Prairies where totals will range from 1-3.00”. The Eastern Dakotas and Western Minnesota will enjoy rains of .5-1.50” while the remainder of the Midwest struggles with rains of .2-1.00”. The remains of Fred are trudging north and look to produce rains of 1-3.00” across the NE US.

High temps range from the mid 80’s to the mid 90’s across the N & C Plains and into the N Midwest into the weekend before a cooling trend develops. N Plains/W Midwest high temps decline to the 70’s to the lower 80’s while the remainder of the Midwest and the Central Plains hold in the 80’s.

The 10-day rainfall graphic is from the EU forecast model. Notice that much of Kansas, Nebraska, Illinois, and the southern half of Iowa will miss any meaningful rainfall. The 10-15 day forecast returns warmth and dryness to the N Plains and Upper Midwest.

EU Model 10 Day Rainfall Forecast: Drier Trend from Nebraska into Indiana:

After 5-6 Days of Seasonal Temperatures; The Heat Returns for the Plains/W Midwest:

11-15 day Rainfall Forecast: Dry Conditions West and Across Northern US:

US Rainfall as a Percent of Normal from August 1st-31st; Not the Finish that W Farmers Desired:

US Rainfall as a Percent of Normal Since June 1st Thru August 31st: Note the Acute Dryness West:

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