12/31/20

Morning Commentary 12/31/2020

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 2 cents, HRW down 2; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is up 5 cents; Soybeans up 14;  Soymeal up $2.50, and Soyoil up 20 points.

 

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 13 cents; HRW up 13; HRS up 12; Corn is up 29 cents; Soybeans up 52 cents; Soymeal up $17.00, and; Soyoil up 95 points. Crushing margins are down $0.02 at $0.96 (March); Oil share down 1% at 32%.

 

For the month, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 50 cents; HRW up 52; HRS up 41; Corn is up 55 cents; Soybeans up $1.47; Soymeal up $42.00, and; Soyoil up 485 points. 

 

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 35 yuan in soybeans, up 24 in Corn, up 85 in Soymeal, up 62 in Soyoil, and up 38 in Palm Oil.

 

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 14 ringgit at 3,602 (basis March) supported on supply concerns.

 

South America Weather Forecast

 

In Brazil, rain will be supportive of crops in most areas. An exception will be in Rio Grande do Sul where less frequent and more erratic rain will lead to some increase of crop stress.

 

In Argentina, the struggle for any widespread moisture will continue. Any rain in week 1 of the outlook will be isolated. There is still some potential for greater rain Jan. 9 – 13. Confidence is still low.

       

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 20,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 15,000 Corn; net bought 10,000 Soybeans; bought 5,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 1,000 lots of Soyoil.

 

We estimate Managed Money net long 30,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 365,000 Corn; net long 229,000 Soybeans; net long 100,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 117,000 Soyoil. 

 

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 12,000 contracts; HRW Wheat up 355; Corn up 14,000; Soybeans down 5,600 contracts; Soymeal down 2,300 lots, and; Soyoil up 935.

 

Deliveries were 5 contracts for Soybeans; ZERO Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil.

 

There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 24; Rice up 118; HRS Wheat down 18)---Registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 76; Soyoil 1,313 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 451; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,023.

 

 

TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES---

 

 

TABLE-Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain, soy export sales - Reuters News

 

 

 

Trade estimates for 2020-21

Trade estimates for 2021-22

Wheat

200,000-600,000

0-25,000

Corn

500,000-1,000,000

0

Soybeans

200,000-700,000

0

Soymeal

100,000-350,000

0

Soyoil

5,000-40,000

0

 

 

The U.S. soybean crush in November likely totaled 5.765 million short tons, or 192.1 million bushels, according to the average forecast of eight analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.

Estimates ranged from 191.0 million bushels to 193.0 million bushels, with a median of 192.0 million bushels.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CST (2000 GMT) on Monday.

If realized, the crush would be down from a record 196.5 million bushels in October but well above the 174.6 million bushels crushed in November last year. It would also be the largest November crush on record and the third-largest crush for any month, behind only October and March 2020.

U.S. soyoil stocks at the end of November were seen swelling to 2.023 billion lbs, based on estimates from six analysts, up from 1.964 billion lbs at the end of October and 1.880 billion lbs at the end of November last year.

Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 1.926 billion to 2.086 billion lbs, with a median of 2.028 billion lbs.

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), whose members account for 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, said its members crushed 181.018 million bushels in November, the third-most ever for a single month. End-of-month oil stocks among NOPA members rose to 1.558 billion lbs. (Full Story)

 

 

CME Raises Corn Futures Margins By 14.7% for March 2021 - Reuters

  30-Dec-2020 03:47:25 PM

  • RAISES CORN FUTURES (C) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 14.7% TO $975 PER CONTRACT FROM $850 FOR MARCH 2021
  • RAISES SOYBEAN FUTURES (S) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 9.1% TO $2,400 PER CONTRACT FROM $2,200 FOR JAN. 2021
  • RAISES WHEAT FUTURES (W) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 9.1% TO $1,500 PER CONTRACT FROM $1,375 FOR MARCH 2021
  • SAYS INITIAL MARGIN RATES ARE 110% OF THESE LEVELS
  • SAYS RATES WILL BE EFFECTIVE AFTER THE CLOSE OF BUSINESS ON JAN. 4, 2021

 

China sold 582,153 tonnes of wheat, or 14.41% of the total offer at an auction of state reserves this week, the National Grain Trade Centre said in a statement on Thursday. The average selling price was 2,344 yuan ($358.35) a tonne,

 

Chinese soymeal futures hit their highest levels on record on the last day of 2020, buoyed by strong international soybean prices and investor bets on robust demand from the livestock sector. The most actively traded soymeal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange for May delivery rose 4.2% to 3,423 yuan ($523.96) a tonne

 

Argentina will suspend sales of corn for export until Feb. 28, the agriculture ministry said on Wednesday, announcing the surprise move as part of the government's effort to ensure ample domestic food supplies. The move by the world's No. 3 corn supplier was a sign of tightening global food supplies during the COVID-19 pandemic. "This decision is based on the need to ensure the supply of grain for the sectors that use it as a raw material for the production of animal protein such as pork, chicken, eggs, milk and cattle, where corn represents a significant component of production costs," the statement said. Argentina's government is struggling to control food price inflation and help low-income families contending with an economy shrinking during the pandemic. Buyers can still book corn from Argentina, but only for a shipping date March 1 or later.

 

Argentine soymeal and soyoil factories went back into production on Wednesday after a 20-day strike by oilseed workers was ended late the night before by a new wage contract for the coming year, union and industry sources said. The deal, following a more than 10-hour negotiation session hosted by the Labor Ministry on Tuesday, includes a two-part 25% increase in salaries from January to August. Increases for the rest of the year are to be determined by the inflation rate.

 

Indian farmer Shingara Singh has grown grain for 35 years and is one of thousands of protesters against agricultural reforms who have the power to help slash a huge annual bill of $10 billion for imports of vegetable oils.

 

 

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Dec. 1-25 rose 14.4 percent to 1,290,257 tonnes from 1,127,495 tonnes shipped during Nov. 1-25, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said

 

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for December rose 19.6 percent to 1,685,958 tonnes from 1,409,751 tonnes shipped during November, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said

 

MALAYSIA'S DEC PALM OIL EXPORTS SEEN AT 1,709,084 TONNES VERSUS NOV AT 1,420,103 TONNES - AMSPEC

 

The U.S. said it will ban all shipments of palm oil from one of the world's biggest producers after finding indicators of forced labor and other abuses on plantations that feed into the supply chains of some of America's most famous food and cosmetic companies.

The order against Malaysian-owned Sime Darby Plantation Berhad and its local subsidiaries, joint ventures and affiliates followed an intensive months-long investigation by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection's Office of Trade

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