12/4/19

Morning Commentary - 12/04/2019

Wheat prices overnight are up roughly 1 cent in the SRW Wheat, up 3 in HRW, and up 1 for HRS; Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 6; Soymeal up $1.50, and; Soyoil up 15 points.

 

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 68 yuan in Soybeans, down 1 in Corn, unchanged in Soymeal, up 36 in Soyoil, and up 56 in Palm Oil.

 

The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 11 ringgit at 2,733 (basis February) on weaker export forecasts.

 

Soybean futures may be reacting to overnight news that US and China may be close to a Phase 1 trade deal. This following POTUS comments yesterday that there may not be a deal until after the 2020 election. Trade will also be watching weekly US export sales data for direction. Trade may also be waiting for demand data on next weeks USDA supply and demand report. North Argentina could see some needed rains in day 10 of the forecast.

Lower interest rates may be helping Brazil economy more than expected. Upcoming UK vote is supporting the British Pound.

 

The South American weather forecast for Brazil in the 6 to 10 day outlook with good rainfall continuing in the north while south remains dry in the growing regions. Argentina’s 6 to 10 day outlook is mainly dry.

 

In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 319 lots; Soyoil 658; Corn 129; HRW Wheat 11; Oats 10; SRW Wheat ZERO,

and; HRS Wheat 65.

 

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 1,000 Corn; were net even in Soybeans; bought 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 Soyoil.

 

We estimate Managed Money net long 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 133,000 Corn; net short 59,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 33,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 67,000 Soyoil.  

 

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,700 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,100; Corn down 2,300; Soybeans up 4,100 contracts; Soymeal up 4,100 lots, and; Soyoil up 3,500.

 

Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; 10 Oats; Corn 216; Soybeans 1,469; Soyoil 2,584 lots; Soymeal 710; Rice 477; HRW Wheat 11, and; HRS Wheat 954 contracts.

 

TODAY------WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS

 

In tender activity--- Japan seeks 120,000t optional-origin feed wheat---Egypt was a buyer of 295,000t Russian wheat---

 

ADMIS CROP ESTIMATES FOR DECEMBER REPORTS

 

CBOT deliverable grain stocks summary - Reuters News

TOTALS                    34,890       4,082      18,767      12,343      17,178

Week Ago Totals           35,234       4,108      19,066      12,308      17,787

Year Ago Totals           64,757       7,152      17,664      18,458      23,016

 

 

 

 

KCBT weekly deliverable HRW wheat stocks - Reuters News

 

HUTCHINSON, KANSAS

                                         11/29/19            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         23,905            23,952            27,670

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded               900               900               900

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               24,805            24,852            28,570

---

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI/KANSAS

                                         11/29/19            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         12,366            12,460            11,225

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded                38                38               480

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               12,404            12,498            11,705

---

SALINA, KANSAS

                                         11/29/19            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         28,240            29,342            35,113

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded                 0                 0                 0

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               28,240            29,342            35,113

---

WICHITA, KANSAS

                                         11/29/19            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         31,721            31,927            40,532

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded             1,889             2,342             1,844

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               33,610            34,269            42,376

 

 

 

MGEX deliverable HRS wheat stocks - Reuters News

 

MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL RED WING

                            12/01/19        WEEK AGO        YEAR AGO

Deliverable                    3,694           3,857           1,380

Non-deliverable                    0               0               0

CCC stocks                         0               0               0

Total                          3,694           3,857           1,380

---

DULUTH/SUPERIOR

                            12/01/19        WEEK AGO        YEAR AGO

Deliverable                   16,737          17,228          15,494

Non-deliverable                  463             463             756

CCC stocks                         0               0               0

Total                         17,200          17,691          16,250

 

 

Brazilian farmers are expected to plant more than 18 million hectares of corn in the 2019/2020 season, a 3.5% rise from the previous cycle and a record area since records began being kept, according to a Reuters poll; with good prices encouraging farmers to cultivate more corn despite weather risks facing Brazil's second crop of the cereal, which will be planted later in the season, total output may reach 101 million tons in the season

 

Ukrainian farms have almost completed the 2019 grain harvest, threshing a record 74.7 million tons of grain from 99.1% of the sown area, the Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture said; the grain yield averaged 4.93 tons per hectare (1.9 tons per acre), the ministry said in a report.

Ukraine harvested 70 million tons of grain in 2018.

 

Iraq, a major Middle East grain importer, said it planned to purchase 750,000 tons of wheat from abroad in 2020.

 

 

 

 

 

World Weather, Inc. 

 

 

WEDNESDAY                                                                7 DAY PRECIP FORECAST

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.gif?1575454677https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1575454240

 

 

 

U.S. 6-10 DAY FORECAST (TEMP/PRECIP) 

 

 

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

 

 

 

 

U.S. 8-14 DAY FORECAST (TEMP/PRECIP)

 

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

 

 

 

SOUTH AMERICA ONE WEEK PRECIP FORECAST

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/gfs/gfs_week1_sam_precip_obs.gif

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