Morning Bullet Points - 08/07/2018




  • Markets higher overnight although settled well off the highs at the end of the night session.
  • Crop progress yesterday showed corn ratings down 1% at 71% good-to-excellent and beans down 3% at 67% good-to-excellent.  Corn was as expected while soybeans were a little worse.  Spring wheat ratings dropped to 74%, which was down 4%.
  • French farm ministry cut their soft wheat crop to 35.1 MMT, down from 36.1 a month ago (not much of a cut).  They cut their corn to 12.8 MMT, down from 14.3 a year ago.
  • Barley was revised slightly lower and canola left unchanged.
  • Average corn yield estimate for Thursday is 176.2 and soybeans 49.6.
  • Corn technically is trending higher with support at 3.79 and resistance 3.93.
  • Soybeans technically are trending higher with support at 9.00 and resistance 9.30.
  • Wheat technically is trending higher with support at 5.55 and resistance 5.90 and 6.00.
  • USDA reported 179,000 MT of corn to unknown for 2018/19.
  • USDA reported 145,000 MT of soybeans to unknown for 2018/19.



  • Warmer temperatures seen returning in the 11-15 period.
  • Scattered rains over the next two weeks will limit additional damage to the crop.
  • Heat finally eases in Europe later this week.



  • Corn continues to consolidate in the 3.80-3.85 area with continuation of the trend likely meaning higher prices.  The US and global corn crops are not as big as we thought a couple months ago, which should mean higher prices over time.  Keeping that in mind, I look for pullbacks to be well supported.  The French production was not as small as expected this morning, which could weigh on the wheat and then spill into the corn.
  • Soybeans continue to find buying interest when they drop below 9.00.  They are cheap to corn and wheat, which should limit downside risk for now.
  • Wheat did not get an overly bullish set of numbers from France this morning with the market pulling back 10 cents when the report came out.  Wheat looks headed higher over time, so a further pullback likely finds buyers.


Fun Fact of the Day:  The name "England" is derived from the Old English name Englaland, which means "land of the Angles". The Angles were one of the Germanic tribes that settled in Great Britain during the Early Middle Ages. The Angles came from the Angeln peninsula in the Bay of Kiel area of the Baltic Sea.

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