GOOD MORNING—
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
- Markets trading mixed in quiet post-crop report market.
- Traders were shocked yesterday by the big corn production number.
2017/18 US Production |
Actual |
Average |
Range |
Last Month |
Corn Production |
14578 |
14.333 |
14.25-14.459 |
14.280 |
Corn Yield |
175.4 |
172.4 |
171.7-174 |
171.8 |
Corn Acres |
83.119 |
83.1 |
83-83.2 |
83.119 |
Bean Production |
4.425 |
4.408 |
4.375-4.467 |
4.431 |
Bean Yield |
49.5 |
49.3 |
48.9-49.9 |
49.5 |
Bean Acres |
89.471 |
89.486 |
89.4-89.5 |
89.471 |
2017/18 US Ending Stocks |
Actual |
Average |
Range |
Last Month |
|
Corn Stocks |
2487 |
2.366 |
2.286-2.438 |
2.340 |
|
Soybean Stocks |
425 |
420 |
377-461 |
430 |
|
Wheat Stocks |
935 |
957 |
940-980 |
960 |
|
|
|
||||
2017/18 World Stocks |
Actual |
Average |
Range |
Last Month |
|
Corn Stocks |
203.86 |
201.18 |
197.6-203.5 |
200.96 |
|
Soybean Stocks |
97.9 |
95.5 |
93-97 |
96.05 |
|
Wheat Stocks |
267.53 |
266.78 |
261-269 |
268.13 |
|
- The corn yield was a big surprise, but other adjustments made the impact on the balance sheets somewhat limited.
- Corn open interest sharply higher post report with the managed fund position now expected to be record large.
- China reportedly booking ethanol cargoes from the US the past few days.
- Corn traded to new contract lows yesterday. Support for the Dec. is at 3.30 and resistance 3.45.
- Soybeans bumping into support at the bottom of their recent channel. Support in the 9.70’s and resistance at 9.90.
- Wheat is hitting moving average resistance near 4.30 with support at 4.20.
WEATHER
- Northern Brazil caught rains in the past day with more expected mid-next week.
- Argentina has a dry forecast that should allow planting to continue.
- Overall, no major areas of concern in South America.
OUTLOOK
- The big corn production number will be a weight on the market moving forward, and will also temper bullishness when seeing the adverse weather in the future as well. Major support shows up at 3.30, which is the logical place to look for futures to trade down to.
- Soybeans had a neutral report yesterday but had rallied coming into the number. With the US pipeline full and corn making new contract lows, soybeans probably do not need to rally.
- Wheat remains stuck in its range with little reason to make a major move higher unless corn/beans lead.
Have a great weekend!