AUGUST 22, 2017—
- Markets trading mixed this morning after spending most of the night higher.
- Crop ratings yesterday were pretty much in line with expectations with corn ratings steady at 61% g/e and bean ratings up 1 at 60% g/e.
- After one day on the Pro Farmer crop tour, they found average corn yield in SD at 147.97 bpa (149.78 last year and 156 bpa 3 year average) and OH corn at 164.62 bpa (148.96 last year and 159.8 bpa 3 year average). Both of those corn yields are surprisingly high, but worst areas in SD are not covered. There was a multitude of variability reported.
- Open interest in both corn and soybeans higher on the break yesterday with fund selling a feature.
- Corn technically pushed to new lows yesterday. Long-term support for the nearby contract comes in at 3.30, which is 18 cents below the current market.
- Soybeans technically are holding above key support near 9.30 with overhead resistance in the mid-9.50’s.
- Wheat technically pushed to new recent lows as well with support in the 4.10 area with resistance above the market near 4.30.
- Rains worked across the WCB yesterday.
- The WCB has more chances for rains in the next few days before drying out in the 6-10. The 11-15 period is wetter for the WCB again.
- The ECB remains mostly dry moving forward.
- Temperatures expected to run well below normal for the Midwest over the next two weeks.
- Corn appears to be in the process of grinding toward a seasonal low. Major support is at 3.30. Longer term, I think we can trade higher from here unless national corn yield is going to be within 1-2 bpa of 170 (which I do not think it is).
- Soybeans have found flat price buyers on the current pullback and the market is letting “the funds” get short. The last time they got short, the market quickly rallied $1.30, so I do not think this is the time to be overly bearish.
- Wheat does not have any reason to rally while corn is under pressure.
Fun Fact of the Day: The Constitution was written during the Philadelphia Convention—now known as the Constitutional Convention—which convened from May 25 to September 17, 1787. It was signed on September 17, 1787.
Have a great day,
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